Botany by-election and what it means

National’s Jamie-Lee Ross has won the Botany by-election with a very low turn out.  He gained a majority of 3996 with 14,911 votes cast.   The real indicator of performance in by-elections – where turnout is notoriously low – is in the % of votes gained.  In that regards National’s support dropped a couple of points but held up quite well.  ACTs vote fell badly and did not seem to transfer into the National camp to any great extent.  The big gainer in percent of vote terms was Labour – although given the absence of a Green candidate it will be interesting to see to what extent the Labour lift is attributable to a strategic shift of votes from the Green’s camp.  Labour will take heart from its candidates good performance. Overall in the context of a safe National seat and the focus on Christchurch the main issue for the centre right will be on figuring out what happened to the ACT vote and whether this is a potent of things to come for November.  Given that context and the very low turnout – it would be a mistake to read too much into the Botany result. 

AL-SAADY, Hussain PIR 28 
BRIGHT, Penny IND 124 
GOH, Robert IND 31 
MURPHY, Lyn ACT 671 
ROSS, Jami-Lee NAT 8,150    – 54.7%
WOOD, Michael LAB 4,154  – 27.9%
YOUNG, Paul NCP 1,572 
YOUNG, Wayne IND 55

In 2008, National Pansy Wong received 17,382 votes over Labour’s Koro Tawa 6,510.


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